Rasmussen Reports is frequently an outlier when it comes to their political polling, mostly because they use a different strategy than the rest of the major outlets. Instead of polling all voters, they drill down and focus only on “likely voters,” which gives them an edge when it comes to accuracy. They were among the very few polling outlets to get close to the truth in 2016, so even when they differ from the pack nowadays, it’s worth taking their stats seriously. And if we do that, their latest poll contains one number that should scare the hell out of Democrats.
According to Rasmussen (and Emerson, for that matter), Black Registered Voter Approval for President Trump is sitting at 34%.
As Real Clear Politics noted recently, this number would spell doom for Democrats and their hopes to retake the White House.
“Even 20 percent African-American support for Trump would all but dismantle Democratic Party presidential hopes for 2020. Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election with 88 percent of the black vote. That was about a six-point falloff from Barack Obama’s share of the black vote in 2012,” RCP reported.
“But far more importantly, an estimated 2 million of the African-American voters who cast ballots for Obama in 2012 simply did not show up at the polls in 2016 to vote for the off-putting Clinton,” they continued. “Even a small drop in African-American turnout or anything less than the usual 85 percent to 90 percent supermajority for a Democratic presidential candidate on Election Day can prove fatal.”
It is difficult to believe that 34% of African-Americans will come out to vote for Trump next November, but if Trump can get even half that number, Democrats are essentially done for. And we can very easily imagine THAT happening, especially if the party nominates someone like Pete Buttigieg, whose record on race relations is spotty and whose homosexuality is almost certainly a deal breaker for many black voters.
But no matter who the Democrats nominate, it’s obvious that Trump is going to have more black support than he did in 2016. It is not lost on black Americans how good this president has been for employment in the black community, to say nothing of the economy at large. Black voters are also not entirely on board with the Democratic Party’s lurch to the left, particularly when it comes to social issues like abortion, gay marriage, transgender nonsense, and all the rest.
The media likes to pretend that Blexit is just a conservative meme, but this poll shows that it could be much more real – and much more widespread – than Democrats want to admit.