Make no mistake about it, a broad overview of swing state polls tells an ominous tale for anyone who wants to see President Donald Trump win four more years. If we were dropped here from the year 2015, we would not be very optimistic about the president’s chances. In fact, we’d be downright depressed. The only thing keeping us sane is the fact that we weren’t frozen in ice in the year 2015…which means we’ve seen this all before.
Indeed, these polls look extremely familiar.
“Our forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina,” wrote polling guru Nate Silver on Election Day 2016. He noted that Clinton could wind up losing either Florida or North Carolina, thus narrowing her electoral lead.
Not that it would come anywhere near costing her the election.
You’ll recall that Clinton lost both North Carolina AND Florida. Oh, and she also lost Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
And if you look at the Real Clear Politics running polls averages – man, do they look suspiciously familiar.
“In the top battleground states — North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin — Biden currently holds a four-point lead in the average. In 2016, Clinton held a 3.5-point lead. That means there’s just a .5-point difference this time around,” reports The Daily Wire.
Liberals are eager for us to believe that the polls are more accurate this time around because…well, just because. But we can’t help but notice that there’s a lot more hedging this time. Pundits and newspapers who were practically celebrating Clinton’s win prematurely in 2016 are keeping a tight lip this year. They aren’t ready to discount the possibility that the polls are wrong again. They aren’t ready to count Trump out this time. They know that they will look like the world’s biggest goobers if they get duped a second time by the same pollsters.
At the end of the day, the polls aren’t votes. That’s all you have to remember. And with a number of wild cards in the mix – early voting, mail-in voting, COVID – anything could happen.