According to a new report from Axios, White House (acting) Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has been telling colleagues and staffers that Democrats’ efforts at impeaching President Trump could very well set the president up for a 45-state landslide election win in 2020. Betting on the fact that a failed impeachment process (which it will be when it lands in front of Mitch McConnell, regardless of what happens in the House) will turn voters off and move sympathy towards Trump, Mulvaney thinks that Nancy Pelosi is making the political blunder of a lifetime.
“People who’ve heard Mulvaney make this remark say he wasn’t joking or even exaggerating. He appears to genuinely believe that impeachment will have a profoundly positive effect on Trump’s political fortunes, according to 3 sources who have heard Mulvaney make the 45-state prediction,” Axios reports.
The “45 state” thing seems a trifle optimistic – this isn’t 1984, by any means – but we do believe that Mulvaney is on to something. That’s why, as tiresome as it all is, we’re not particularly upset by this move towards impeachment. Like, on the one hand, it is absolutely destructive to our culture, our strength as a nation, and our unity as a people. On the other, from a purely political standpoint, it is just about the best gift we could imagine. Pelosi, Schiff, and Nadler are setting Trump up to be a hero heading into the election.
Especially since…this whole thing is based on nothing. Fluff. A phone call. It’s absurd.
Mulvaney also believes that the longer the impeachment process drags on, the better it is, politically, for Trump, these sources added.
Mulvaney did not stipulate which 5 states he thought Trump would still lose when he made these comments, a source who heard them said.
His view appears to be based more on instinct than polling data. I have seen no polling that supports his prediction, and at this early stage, responsible polling analysts are extremely wary of predicting which party will benefit more from impeachment in 2020.
But it’s possible Mulvaney is echoing the ebullience emanating from the Trump campaign. They are raising breathtaking sums online by telling supporters to give money to help Trump fight the Democrats trying to impeach him.
That last point is important – and 100% correct. The RNC and the Trump campaign are smashing fundraising records. They were already crushing the Democrats in donations before Pelosi’s announcement, but since then, the numbers have rocketed into the stratosphere. Trump will have enough money to wage the political war to end all wars – which 2020 will undoubtedly turn out to be. Put that together with disgruntled Obama/Trump voters who don’t like the idea of Democrats nullifying the 2016 election, and you could have a recipe for a landslide indeed.
45 states? Maybe not. But then, it only took 30 to beat Hillary.