A new study conducted by a Princeton professor shows that when blacks riot, conservatives vote. Omar Wasow looked at the destructive black rioting of the 1960s and how it affected public policy. Critics are examining the study – “Nonviolence, Violence and Voting: Effects of the 1960s Black Protests on White Attitude and Voting Behavior” – to see what lessons it might hold for the Black Lives Matter movement today.
Wasow found that Richard Nixon was carried into the White House in 1968 by a “social backlash” that followed the urban rioting of the civil rights era. By analyzing the votes county by county, he discovered that “black protests in which some violence occurs are associated with a statistically significant decline in Democratic vote-share.”
By contrast, Wasow says, black-led protests where there was no violence had the opposite effect on subsequent voting patterns. Whites were more willing to vote for liberal candidates when they had not recently been exposed to racial rioting. He goes as far as to conclude that, in the absence of violent protests, Hubert Humprhey would have liked defeated Nixon.
In writing about the study, the Washington Post said, “There are obviously many, many differences between the 1960s protests and those in 2014-2015 … To pick just one, the 1960s protests were larger and more numerous.”
Indeed. The other main difference is that the civil rights movement of the 1960s was actually based around legitimate issues. The current movement is based around complete fiction. One can surmise that in this atmosphere, even nonviolent protests may encourage people to vote more conservatively in the next election. Considering the Black Lives Matter movement has inspired plenty of violence, the backlash may be even more significant once the next election rolls around. If so, it might spell doom for Hillary Clinton.
Journalists will doubtlessly make hay from the racial component of the study, condemning whites for judging all blacks by the actions of a few. But there are plenty of reasons for conservative blowback following these riots and protests, and none of them have a thing to do with race. Americans crave law and order when they sense their communities are out of control. At a time when Democrats are pushing hard to slash black incarceration rates, riots like the ones seen in Ferguson and Baltimore are the worst things that could possibly happen. Violence aside, it’s easy to see how liberal Democrat policies have led us to the inner city problems we see today. When New York City was under Giuliani’s rule, things got clean. When the city went back to the Democrats, the crime returned. Under de Blasio, there’s no telling how dangerous the city will eventually become.
If Democrats suffer in 2016, they might want to consider how this backwards approach to crime and race contributed to their defeat.